Perhaps you've noticed
all those mutual fund
ads that quote their
amazingly high one-year
rates of return. Your
first thought is "wow,
that mutual fund did
great!" Well, yes it did
great last year, but
then you look at the
three-year performance,
which is lower, and the
five year, which is yet
even lower. What's the
underlying story here?
Let's look at a real
example from a large
mutual fund's
performance:
|
1 year
|
3 year
|
5 year
|
|
53% |
20% |
11% |
Last year, the fund had
excellent performance at
53%. But, in the past
three years, the average
annual return was 20%.
What did it do in years
1 and 2 to bring the
average return down to
20%? Some simple math
shows us that the fund
made an average return
of 3.5% over those first
two years: 20% = (53% +
3.5% + 3.5%)/3. Because
that is only an average,
it is very possible that
the fund lost money in
one of those years.
It gets worse when we
look at the five-year
performance. We know
that in the last year
the fund returned 53%
and in years 2 and 3 we
are guessing it returned
around 3.5%. So what
happened in years 4 and
5 to bring the average
return down to 11%?
Again, by doing some
simple calculations we
find that the fund must
have lost money, an
average of -2.5% each
year of those two years:
11% = (53% + 3.5% + 3.5%
- 2.5% - 2.5%)/5. Now
the fund's performance
doesn't look so good!
It should be mentioned
that, for the sake of
simplicity, this example,
besides making some big
assumptions, doesn't
include calculating
compound interest. Still,
the point wasn't to be
technically accurate but
to demonstrate the
importance of taking a
closer look at
performance numbers. A
fund that loses money
for a few years can bump
the average up
significantly with one
or two strong years.
It's All Relative
Of course, knowing how a
fund performed is only
one third of the battle.
Performance is a
relative issue,
literally. If the fund
we looked at above is
judged against its
appropriate benchmark
index, a whole new layer
of information is added
to the evaluation. If
the index returned 75%
for the 1 year time
period, that 53% from
the fund doesn't look
quite so good. On the
other hand, if the index
delivered results of
25%, 5%, and -5% for the
respective one, three,
and five-year periods,
then the fund’s results
look rather fine indeed.
To add another layer of
information to the
evaluation, one can
consider a fund’s
performance against its
peer group as well as
against its index. If
other funds that invest
with a similar mandate
had similar performance,
this data point tells us
that the fund is in line
with its peers. If the
fund bested its peers
and its benchmark, its
results would be quite
impressive indeed.
Looking at any one piece
of information in
isolation only tells a
small portion of the
story. Consider the
comparison of a fund
against its peers. If
the fund sits in the top
slot over each of the
comparison periods, it
is likely to be a solid
performer. If it sits at
the bottom, it may be
even worse than
perceived, as peer group
comparisons only capture
the results from
existing funds. Many
fund companies are in
the habit of closing
their worst performers.
When the "losers" are
purged from their
respective categories,
their statistical
records are no longer
included in the category
performance data. This
makes the category
averages creep higher
than they would have if
the losers were still in
the mix. This is better
known as survivorship
bias. (Learn more about
survivorship bias in The
Truth Behind Mutual Fund
Returns.)