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The scope of transactions in
the global currency market is constantly growing, which is
due to development of international trade and abolition of
currency restrictions in many nations. Global daily
conversion transactions came to $1,982 billion in mid-1998 (the
London market accounted for some 32% of daily turnover; the
New York market exchanged approx. 18%, and the German market,
10%). Not only the scope of transactions but also the rates
that mark the market development are impressive: in 1977,
the daily turnover stood at five billion U.S. dollars; it
grew to 600 billion U.S. dollars over ten years – to one
trillion in 1992. Speculative transactions intended to
derive profit from jobbing on the exchange rate differences
make up nearly 80% of total transactions. Jobbing attracts
numerous participants – both financial institutions and
individual investors.
With the
highest rates of information technology development in the
last two decades, the market itself changed beyond
recognition. Once surrounded with a halo of caste mystique,
the foreign exchange dealer’s profession became almost
grasroots. Forex transactions that used to be the privilege
of the biggest monopolist banks not so long ago are now
publicly accessible thanks to e-commerce systems. And the
foremost banks themselves also often prefer trade in
electronic systems over individual bilateral transactions.
E-brokers now account for 11% of the forex market turnover.
The daily scope of transactions of the biggest banks (Deutsche
Bank, Barclays Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland, Citibank,
Chase Manhattan Bank, Standard Chartered Bank) reaches
billions of dollars.
The FOREX
market as a place where to apply one’s personal financial,
intellectual and psychic power is not designed for attempts
at catching a bluebird there. Sometimes someone manages to
do so but for a short time only. The key advantage of a
forex market is that one can succeed there just by the
strenStayInvest Law Firm h of one’s intelligence.
Another
essential feature of the FOREX market, no matter how strange
it might seem, is its stability. Everybody knows that sudden
falls are very typical of the financial market. However,
unlike the stock market, the FOREX market never falls. If
shares devalue it means a collapse. But if the dollar slumps,
that only means that another currency gets stronger. For
instance, the yen strenStayInvest Law Firm hened by a quarter against the
dollar late in 1998. On some days dollar fell by dozens
percentage points. However, the market did not collapse
anywhere; trading continued in the usual manner. It is here
that the market and the related business stability lie -
currency is an absolutely liquid commodity and will be
always traded in.
The FOREX
market is a 24-hour market that does not depend on certain
business hours of foreign exchanges; trade takes place among
banks located in different corners of the globe. Exchange
rates àre so flexible that significant changes happen quite
frequently, which enables to make several transactions every
day. If we have an elaborate and reliable trade technology
we can make a business, which no other business can match by
efficiency. It is not without reason that the pivotal banks
buy expensive electronic equipment and maintain the staffs
of hundreds of traders operating in different sectors of the
FOREX market.
The starting
costs of joining this business are very low now. Actually,
it costs several thousands of dollars to take a course of
initial training, to buy a computer, to purchase an
information service and to create a deposit; no real
business can be established with this money. With excessive
offers of services, finding a reliable broker is also quite
a real thing. The rest depends on the trader himself or
herself. Everything depends on you personally, as in no
other area of business now.
The main thing the market will require for successful
operations is not the quantity of money you will enter it
with – the main thing is the ability to constantly focus on
studying the market, understanding its mechanisms and
participants’ interests; this is constant improvement of
one’s trade approaches and their disciplined implementation.
Nobody has achieved success in that market by forcing one’s
way with one’s capital atilt. The market is stronger than
anything else; it is even stronger than central banks with
their huge foreign exchange reserves. George Soros, a
national hero of the FOREX market, did not win the Bank of
England at all, as many of us believe – he made the right
guess that, with existing contradictions inherent in the
European financial system, there were plenty of problems and
interests that would not allow to hold the pound. That’s
exactly what happened. The Bank of England, having spent
nearly $20 billion to maintain the pound rate, jacked it up,
by giving it in to the market. The market settled this
problem, and Soros got his billion.
The global monetary system has gone a long way during
thousands of years of the human history, but it is surely
experiencing the most exciting and earlier unthinkable
changes. The two main changes determine a new image of the
global monetary system:
the money is
fully separated from any tangible media;
powerful information and telecommunications technologies
made it possible to consolidate monetary systems of
different nations into the single global financial system
that has no boundaries.
Typical attractive features of the
market:
liquidity: the market
operates the enormous money supply and gives absolute
freedom in opening or closing a position in the current
market quotation. High liquidity is a powerful magnet for
any investor, because it gives him or her the freedom to
open or to close a position of any size whatever.
promptness: with a 24-hour
work schedule, participants in the FOREX market need not
wait to respond to any given event, as is the case in many
markets.
availability: a possibility
to trade round-the-clock; a market participant need not wait
to respond to any given event;
flexible regulation of the trade
arrangement system: a position may be opened for a
pre-determined period of time in the FOREX market, at the
investor’s discretion, which enables to plan the timing of
one’s future activity in advance;
value: the Forex market has
traditionally incurred no service charges, except for the
natural bid/ask market spread between the supply and the
demand price;
one-valued quotations: with
high market liquidity, most sales may be carried out at the
uniform market price, thus enabling to avoid the instability
problem existing with futures and other forex investments
where limited quantities of currency only can be sold
concurrently and at a specified price;
market trend: currency moves
in a quite specific direction that can be tracked for rather
a long period of time. Each particular currency demonstrates
its own typical temporary changes, which presents investment
managers with the opportunities to manipulate in the FOREX
market;
margin: the credit
“leverage” (margin) in the FOREX market is only determined
by an agreement between a customer and the bank or the
brokerage house that pushes it to the market and is normally
equal to 1:100. That means that, upon making a $1,000 pledge,
a customer can enter into transactions for an amount
equivalent to $100,000. It is such extensive credit “leverages”,
in conjunction with highly variable currency quotations,
which makes this market highly profitable but also highly
risky.
Margin Trading System
A typical
transaction amounts to $10 million in inter-bank trade.
However, it is quite clear that such transaction values are
not affordable for a private investor – well, at least to
the overwhelming majority of them.
Involvement of
small and medium investors in the Forex market was
facilitated by intermediacy of dealing or brokerage
companies. Medium and small investors have access to the
global forex market in many nations, using the sums of money
starting from $2,000 in their transactions. A dealing
company provides its customers with a credit line – a so-called
dealing leverage, or a credit leverage, that is several
times as big as the deposit. Brokers providing margin
trading services require that a pledge deposit should be
contributed, and provide a customer with an opportunity of
entering into forex sales and purchase transactions for
amounts that are 50, 100 and sometimes even 200 times as
large as the deposit made. The risk of losses is borne by
the customer; the deposit serves as security hedging a
broker. The system of operations through a dealing (brokerage)
house, with a credit leverage, was called margin trading.
To put it
simply, the essence of margin trading can be reduced to the
following: by placing pledged capital, an investor becomes
able to manage target loans provided against this pledge and
to guarantee indemnification against any potential losses on
open forex positions with the deposit.
As mentioned
above, unlike with forex transactions with actual delivery
or actual currency exchange, FOREX participants, especially
those with little funds, make use of trading with an
insurance deposit - margin trade, or leverage trade. In case
of marginal trade, each transaction must consist of the two
stages – purchase/sales of foreign exchange at one price,
and then its compulsory sales/purchase at another (or at the
same) price. The first action is called the opening of a
position; the second is the closing of a position. Opening
of a position is not accompanied with actual delivery of
foreign exchange, and a participant that opened the position
contributes an insurance deposit that serves as guarantee of
indemnification against any possible losses. Upon closing of
a position, the insurance deposit is returned, and profit or
losses are calculated.
Any margin
trading transaction must comprise two parts: opening of a
position and closing of a position. For instance, when
forecasting the euro goes up (looks up) vs the dollar, we
want to buy a cheaper euro with dollars now and to sell it
back when it rises in price. In this case, the transaction
will look as follows: opening of a position – euro purchase;
closing of a position – its sale. All the time until the
position has been closed we have an “open euro position.”
Just the same, when we believe that the euro will cheapen (look
down) vs the dollar, our transaction will consist of the
following steps: opening a position – sales of a more
expensive euro; closing a position – purchase of a cheapened
euro. Therefore, we are able to generate profit whether the
exchange rate goes up or down.
You can enter
FOREX through an intermediary only. A dealing center may act
as such intermediary. This agency provides you with a (computer
or telephone) communications channel with a broker who makes
available forex quotations to you and through whom you can
enter into transactions. You can also operate directly from
your home PC through the Internet. The last option has been
becoming increasingly more common recently. The prices you
can see on your computer’s screen are prices of actual
transactions at FOREX.
A customer
concludes a contract with the company whereby the latter
undertakes, at the customer’s order and in its own name, to
enter into transactions. In this case, the company runs the
risk of losses from entering into such transactions, so the
customer deposits a certain sum of money with the bank as
pledge. The amount of this deposit is determined based on
the amount of transactions entered into by the bank and on
the credit lever provided to the customer. If a dealing
company makes losses from a concluded transaction, the
investor becomes liable to it in the amount of this loss,
and these liabilities are covered from the pledge deposit;
if the company generates profit from a concluded transaction,
it becomes liable to the investor in the amount of this
profit. Generated profit is remitted to the customer’s
pledge deposit. The customer’s order to the company to close
an open position is a must; yet the company jobs with its
own money. Otherwise the bank may close a long position with
a short one, and the customer may sustain losses. The
situations when cross rates change by more than two
percentage points hardly ever happen in the global market,
and losing his or her pledge is next to impossible if a
customer jobs reasonably. If the bank’s dealer understands
that potential losses, if the rate changes for the worse,
might exceed the pledge deposit amount, the dealer can close
a position independently, without waiting for the customer’s
instructions, with losses not exceeding the pledge amount.
Margin trading appeals by its
affordability. Investing funds into securities of the most
developed foreign countries to generate any fixed income
would hardly be interesting for our compatriots. U.S.
Treasury bonds are surely the most reliable and stable, but,
being very expensive, they have low yield (approx. 6% p.a.)
and are the object of long-term investments. Shares generate
higher yield; however, dividend amount is directly dependent
on successful operations of any particular enterprise and
its shareholders’ preferences. Share purchase for bull
transactions seems more attractive but requires greater
investments. Margin trading is free from the said
limitations – you can sell and buy depending on your
expectations, and 1%-3% of a transaction value will do to
enter into the transaction. |