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U.K. Forces Short-Selling Disclosure in Rights Offers - My thanks to
colleague Jackson Wong for this important development reported by
Bloomberg. Here is the opening:
The U.K. will demand disclosure of short selling in rights offerings
and may restrict investors from borrowing the stocks after plunging
share prices hampered banks' attempts to increase capital.
The Financial Services Authority will impose the requirements June
20, the regulator said today in a statement in London. They follow a
slump in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HBOS Plc as they tried
to raise 16 billion pounds ($31 billion) of capital by selling new
shares. HBOS, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, rose as much as 11
percent today.
Britain, regarded as the most open of the world's financial centers,
becomes the first major market in Europe to put limits on short-selling.
The FSA cited short bets for ``severe volatility in the shares of
companies conducting rights issues.'' HBOS, seeking to raise 4
billion pounds in its share sale, fell below the price of its rights
offer this week before recovering.
``The FSA is trying to avoid market abuse in an area that has been
an easy target in the current difficult market conditions,'' said
Ian Murrell, a director at Wills & Co. Stockbrokers Ltd. in London.
``I am not sure how much they will be able to do, but clearly this
is aimed at institutions, many of which won't want their name
associated with short-selling.''
Short sellers try to profit by borrowing stock and buying it back
after prices have declined. The practice is a ``legitimate technique''
that in itself isn't ``abusive,'' the FSA said. The regulator may
restrict the lending of shares during rights offerings to short
sellers and restrict them from covering their positions by buying
the rights to new shares.
`Market Abuse'
``In current market conditions, there is increased potential for
market abuse through short selling during rights issues,'' the
regulator said today in a statement. ``This is potentially damaging
not only to the issuers in question but also to confidence in the
overall fairness and quality of the U.K.''
My view - There is nothing wrong with short selling per se. However
it needs to be monitored by regulators, for possible insider trading,
just like any other unusual market activity. This is an amoral
industry and it will not change until standards of governance
improve. I approve of this new regulation by the FSA.
Email of the day (1) - On China, the USD, inflation and other topics:
"I wanted to thank you and Eoin for a fantastic column. It really is
the only financial column that I JUST HAVE to read every day, mostly
to balance my own thesis with one which I always know will be well
thought out and always level headed in these crazy times.
"I am a part time trader with professional experience. I cut my
teeth trading emerging market bonds and interest rate derivative for
both Merrill and Deutsche Bank for quite a few years however, I have
to say, I am quite fortunate to have since moved onto the real world
where I spend quite a large part of my time sourcing for my own
business out of Asia.
"One observation that I want to put forward is that we are seeing
rampant inflation across all our finished goods (our business deals
mostly in automotive parts). By rampant, I mean items are 70-100%
higher in price in the past six months and there continues to be
further prices increases as the RMB continues to strenStayInvest Law Firm hen and
steel prices increase.
"Another observation is that factories in China are finally starting
to feel the pinch. A lot of the people we speak to
tell us that the smaller factories are closing and it seems like
over-capacity (certainly in the automotive aftermarket business)
built up over the past couple of boom years is starting to catch up.
"Clearly the world is slowing and equity markets are telling us this.
Chairman Bernanke also seems to finally get it and bonds markets are
also getting it that he gets it (if that makes sense). The only
solution out of this mess is to strenStayInvest Law Firm hen the usd by raising rates.
Despite the sell-off in equities the past couple of days, bonds have
sold-off hard with hardly a bounce. Now that systemic risk (the kind
that threatens the whole financial system) is no longer an issue,
the FED needs to raise rates and raise them as soon as possible to
take down commodity prices. It is actually quite interesting that
the downgrades of AMBAC and MBIA came and went. The FED did their
job buying time for the investment banks to hedge their exposure so
whilst there will be further writedowns, it won't threaten to
collapse the whole financial system.
"I know that this quite long but, the long and short of it is that
equity market should continue to struggle going forward, interest
rates should rise around the world at an accelerating pace, and
commodity market should take a breather as demand slows. Finally the
Usd should get and keep a bid. I would especially like your insight
on crude oil as all these comments about high prices not affecting
demand just doesn't seem correct to me. I see it affecting demand in
day to day lives. We have seen a structural shift away from pickups
in America to smaller vehicles. We just opened up a new depot in
Capetown to have goods directly sent there instead of transporting
them by road from Johannesburg. New vehicles sales collapse by 28%
this month compared to last year in South Africa. I am short crude
around these levels by the way and it feels rotten to be short...
"Thanks again for your great work."
My comment - Thank you for your kind words, and a most interesting
and informative email.
Briefly addressing some of your many points of interest, I do not
think we should be surprised by a consolidation of China's smaller
factories. No economy can sustain a thousand separate widget
manufacturers, to give a hypothetical example, even with the benefit
of globalisation. I also think China's rulers have anticipated and
welcome a consolidation, and move upwards in terms of product
sophistication, just as we have seen with all successful developing
economies in the past.
Regarding the USD, I think the US government needs to reduce the
possibility of an eventual downward spiral, which would serve no
useful purpose. There has been some recent success in this respect,
and although partly technical, the somewhat steadier USD since mid-March
is mildly encouraging. However, a firmer greenback would not
eliminate the main fundamental drivers behind commodity prices, long
summarised by Fullermoney as Supply Inelasticity Meets Rising Demand.
Moreover, if the US were to raise interest rates significantly, I
think any effect on commodity prices would be temporary and at the
cost of a very severe recession for the economy.
This item continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Greenberger Testimony Regarding Energy Market manipulation and
Federal Enforcement Regimes - My thanks to a subscriber for this
interesting testimony, of some relevance to earlier discussions on
this site. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a brief
sample:
The question whether there has been manipulation of U.S. energy
futures markets in general, and U.S. delivered crude oil contracts
specifically, has been the subject of many hearings. I have
previously testified at three of those hearings, the most recent
held on December 12, 2007 hearing before the Subcommittee on
Oversight and Investigations of the U.S. House Committee on Energy
and Commerce. To put the issue of today's hearing in context, I
summarize the points I made at that hearing immediately below.
Summary of Prior Testimony
One of the fundamental purposes of futures contracts is to provide
price discovery in the "cash" or "spot" markets. Those selling or
buying commodities in the "spot" markets rely on futures prices to
judge amounts to charge or pay for the delivery of a commodity.1
Since their creation in the agricultural context decades ago, it has
been widely understood that, unless properly regulated, futures
markets are easily subject to distorting the economic fundamentals
of price discovery (i.e., cause the paying of unnecessarily higher
or lower prices) through excessive speculation, fraud, or
manipulation.
My view - I think the current problem is not primarily manipulation,
although there is always some of this in markets, but the weight of
cash from tracker funds investing in markets that were never meant
to be asset classes. We can expect the debate to roll on and I will
be surprised if some new restrictions are not introduced.
(See also my previously most recent item on this subject posted on
Wednesday.)
My personal portfolio: Two trades stopped out; another reopened-
Details and charts are in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (2) - On shorting US government bonds:
This item appears in the Subscriber's Area.
Quote of the week - On limits:
"Givers have to set limits because takers rarely do."
Irma Kurtz
Additional Commentary by Eoin Treacy
Email of the day (1) - on an under appreciated Russian oil company:
"I have been enjoying your service for over a year and have
benefited greatly from your service (it's one of the first items on
my to-do list in each morning).
"Note, I have a report (attached, see below) that I think would be
interesting to subscribers. Gazprom Neft, the oil production
subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom, has announced substantial planned
oil production increases, which would make Gazprom Neft the largest
oil producer in Russia. Note that, I don't believe other members of
the financial community (at least I have not seen, I read many
Russian brokerage reports) have picked up on the fact that the
planned numbers for Gazprom Neft are higher than all other current
Russian producers (Lukoil, Rosneft) in terms of barrel per day
production equivalent.
"Note that Gazprom Neft trades as a separate company (US ADR: GZPFY).
approximately 75% owned by Gazprom.
"One more interesting fact, a relatively new field in Russia, named
"Priobskoye," is possibly the largest ever oil field in Russia in
terms of recoverable reserves, surpassing "Samotlor" -- the previous
largest Russian oil field. Production at Priobskoye started up in
1988 but only on a large scale since 2001, and is rapidly ramping up
currently. Gazprom Neft owns 40% and Rosneft 60% of this field. The
field is discussed in the report.
"Anyway, hope you find the report interesting (I've written this
email directly as it contains a few charts which do not translate
well into the format on the Fullermoney email page)."
My view - Thanks to Randy Kirk for another of his highly informative
emails and for this interesting attachment. Russia is blessed with
some of the largest reserves of all kinds of natural resources in
the world. From that standpoint alone it is worthy of notice because
of the commodity secular bull market. Governance is everything and
if it is seen to be improving Russian equities should continue to do
well may the risk premium attached to the country may start to
decrease.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Cocoa Touches 28-Year High on Speculation Disease May Cut Crops -
This article by Ron Day covers the continued tightness in the cocoa
market. Here it is in full:
Cocoa rose to its highest price since March 1980 in New York on
speculation that supplies may be trimmed by bugs and disease in West
Africa, the world's main production area.
Capsid bugs and caterpillars may wreck some trees as farmers cut
back on pesticide use because of rising costs, Reuters has reported.
Analysts have said that beans shipped from West Africa are small and
moldy, and inventories are falling.
``You can ship as much as you want but no one wants moldy and
diseased beans,'' said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist
in Chicago for Lind-Waldock, a unit of MF Global Ltd. ``People don't
know how bad the crop is going to be.''
Cocoa futures for September delivery rose $57, or 1.9 percent, to
$2,984 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S., the former New York Board
of Trade. Futures earlier reached $2,997, the highest since touching
$3,042 on March 26, 1980, according to Nathan Golz, a researcher at
Wachovia Securities in St. Louis.
Most-active contracts have gained 60 percent in the past year.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures have dropped 3.6
percent this month to 3.52 million bags as of yesterday. A bag
weighs 145 pounds (66 kilograms).
Cocoa deliveries to Ivory Coast's ports for shipment abroad fell 5
percent last week, exporters with access to the information said
today. Beans arriving at the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro, a
measure of production in the world's biggest cocoa-growing country,
were estimated at 19,000 metric tons in the week ended June 8,
compared with 20,000 tons a year earlier, the exporters said.
My view - Higher fertiliser and pesticide prices are leading to a
less healthy cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast Reports indicate that the
harvest will be larger than last year but the quality is much lower.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (2) - on the addition of a coal company to the
Chart Library:
"With all the doom and gloom, there are still stocks(mainly in the
resources sector) doing very well on the Aussie bourse. One that
seems to be gathering momentum is Westhaven Coal (WHC). The coal
sector ,as part of the energy sector, has been performing well on
the ASX. Would it be possible to add WHC to the Chart Library?
"Many thanks."
My comment - Thanks for this interesting suggestion and it has been
added to the Chart Library. Westhaven Coal broke upwards from a 7-month
range in mid-June and would need to sustain a move back into the
range to offset scope for some further upside.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day (3) - on adding ETFS for Leveraged Live Cattle and
Lean Hogs:
"Further to the email on Live Cattle today, there is another way to
play these which is through ETFS Leveraged Live Cattle (also Lean
Hogs etc.). This would mean that you would be less likely to be
stopped out through the volatility that often manifests itself
within spread bet prices. I was unable to find these (relatively new)
contracts in the Chart Library - could they be added?"
My comment - I have added the ETFS Leveraged Lean Hogs and ETFS
Leveraged Live Cattle to the Chart Library. However, I question that
they will help to offset the volatility in trading the actual
contracts. If anything they appear to be more volatile.
Email of the day (4) - on when continuation charts in the Chart
Library roll forward:
"The price of the July oats contract you purchased 2 days ago and
offered by IG Index is quite different to that in the chart library.
I also noticed that the cotton contract for the 1st month in the
chart library is different from that quoted at IG. I think this has
distorted the chart over the past several months. I did raise the
cotton price with Eoin a while ago, but he didn't seem to think
anything was wrong."
My comment - IG Index are currently quoting July Oats, but the on-the-run
contract is December. IG Index are only today rolling forward their
Cotton contracts into the on-the-run December contract. Our concern
is to have the most accurate continuation charts, not to mirror what
an individual broker is doing. Our continuation charts will always
plot data taken from the most active contract and this is why you
will occasionally have differences between what is offered by an
individual broker and what can be found in the Chart Library. .
Rubber Futures Rise in Tokyo on Signs Demand Growing in China - This
article by Aya Takada and Dave McCombs for Bloomberg covers the
performance of the rubber market. Here is the story in full:
Natural rubber futures in Tokyo rose after stockpiles in China fell
to the lowest in five years as demand rises in the world's largest
consumer of the commodity used to make car tires.
Futures added 1.7 percent this week, the eighth gain in nine weeks.
Rubber inventories fell by 975 metric tons to 18,020 tons, the
Shanghai Futures Exchange said today based on a survey of 10
warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin. The
volume was the smallest since January, 2003.
``China will probably increase rubber imports to alleviate the
tightness in domestic supply,'' Jun Nishimuta, an analyst at Kanetsu
Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said by phone today.
Rubber for November delivery settled up 2.3 percent at 339.7 yen a
kilogram ($3,143 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The
most-active contract reached 354 yen yesterday, the highest since
March 7, 1980.
China's passenger-car sales grew a faster-than-expected 16 percent
last month, as demand spurred by economic growth withstood the
effects of the country's deadliest earthquake in 32 years. Vehicle
sales jumped to 564,600 in May, the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers said in an e-mailed statement on June 6.
China, the world's third-biggest vehicle producer, may boost output
by a million units a year for the next decade as economic growth
spurs sales, according to the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers.
The global surplus of natural rubber fell by 66 percent last year to
158,000 tons as increasing consumption outpaced a gain in output,
according to the Web site of the International Rubber Study Group, a
London-based research institute.
September-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 0.7
p
percent to close at 26,230 yuan ($3,800) a ton. The most-active
contract reached the highest in almost two years at 27,080 yuan on
May 27.
My view - Rubber surged upwards in 2005 and 2006 before experiencing
a severe pullback. It found support once more near 175 and staged
another impressive rally. It has been consolidating below the 2006
peak for most of the last 18-months and broke upwards last week. A
sustained move below 300 would be needed to question potential for
further upside.
Today's interesting charts - The Chart Library has two Search
Engines. One searches the more than 16,000 equities, funds and ETFs
in the International Equity Library and the other searches through
the rest of the Chart Library for indices, commodities, currencies,
bond prices and yields, ratios, spreads and overlays.
Australian 10yr Bond - breaking down from the extended top formation
and would need to sustain a move above 93.6 to question scope for
further downside.
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